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Teknik Keputusan [1] September 5, 2009

Posted by desrinda in Teknik Keputusan.
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Tujuan kuliah: Mahasiswa mampu memformulasikan masalah dalam pengambilan keputusan.

1. Supplies methods for organizing decisions
2. Allow identification of important sources of uncertainty
3. Forces representation of certainty
4. Supplies framework for dealing with multiple objectives
5. Modelling and sensitivity analysis

Bu Isti menyampaikan bahwa penilaian akan berdasarkan bobot:
Problem set/quiz = 15%
Term paper = 25%
Midterm Exam = 30%
Final Exam = 30%

Text books:
Clemen, Robert T, Making Hard Decision, 2nd edition, Brooks/Cole Publising Company, 1996
Forman, Ernest H et al, Decision by Objectives: How to Convince Others that You are Right, World Scientific Publishing Company, 2001

EXECUTIVE DECISION MAKING
– Make meetings more effective
– Improve communication
– Achieve consensus
– Prioritize (evaluate alternatives, allocate resources)
– Deliver powerful presentations
– Justify/defend recommendations

Cognitive limitations: Short term memory and limited channel capacity.

*Common simplistic strategis for crucial decision? Relying on rule of thumbs might generally work out fairly well when making routine choices or dealing with minor relatively unimportant decisions.

CASE: Gypsy moth and the ODA, in the winter of 1985 (Lane County, West Oregon). Decision was hard because of the complexity, uncertainty key elementsmultiple objectives, different perspective, sensitivity/unstability.

LEAD TO BETTER DECISIONS
– Decisions are consistent
– No surprise due to thorough study of the problem
– Performance of decision making is better on average

A good decision will be looking back in the past, one can say that one would have made the same decision given the information available at the time of decision making.

Decision Analysis (DA) = Prescriptive approach as infromation source, should not replace the decision maker but support him/her. It does not only provide a solution, but also insight to situation, uncertainty, objectives, trade offs.

Statistics studies is needed to support subjective judgement for decision analysis.

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